Form suggests Sunshine Coast Lightning and Collingwood Magpies are the teams to beat in this weekend's Super Netball semi-finals, but ladder positions have rarely proven an accurate indicator.
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About the only certainty is a Victorian team will win a first finals match for their state in the third season of the competition.
Two-time defending champions Lightning can set a competition record of nine consecutive wins if they score a home victory over the second-placed NSW Swifts in Saturday's semi-final.
They have won five of their six previous encounters against Swifts, including both of this season's fixtures.
Lightning have won all four of their previous finals games, Swifts are about to play their first one and have been inconsistent of late, winning three, losing two and drawing one of their last six.
The form divide is even more stark in Sunday's minor semi-final between the two Victorian clubs.
The Magpies are unbeaten in their past four matches, winning the last three, and have won both of this season's Melbourne derbies.
Vixens have lost their last three, going down to each of the other semi-finalists in a rough run home.
The two clubs made the finals in 2017, but Vixens lost both their games and Collingwood were beaten in their one appearance.
The brief history of the competition shows finishing first and getting a home major semi-final is no guarantee of progress and title glory.
The minor premiers in 2017 and 18 each failed to win a finals match, both losing twice.
Lightning are determined to buck that trend.
Adding further drive is their desire to send dual title-winning coach Noeline Taurua out on a winning note, after she announced last week she would strand down at the end of the season.
"There were definitely tears shed when she sat us down as a group and told us she was moving back to NZ for family reasons," Lightning shooter Cara Koenen told AAP.
"It will be bittersweet towards the end, but it adds a little bit extra, wanting to do it for the coach and everything that she's given to the club she definitely deserves it."
Three-peats, or hat-tricks have been notoriously difficult to achieve in major national sporting competitions of late, though Hawthorn won three successive AFL flags in 2013, 2014 and 2015.
What would make that achievement even more remarkable for Lightning would be doing it in their first three years.
Australian Associated Press
